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The energy industry: march oil production and trade data comment

China's crude imports continued high, reflecting China's total crude oil reserves increase

China's crude oil imports in March of 5.57 million barrels per day, be in February after the second high history. China's crude oil manufactured and march to 9.07 million barrels of oil a day, and we are close to the previously predicted, and confirms our refinery maintenance of increased and march low oil refining margin in oil manufactured the judgment of the downturn

Because of the downturn in March manufactured crude oil, crude oil imports higher than the amount of crude oil processing required. According to the crude oil imports and yield of the difference between the total and manufactured, we expect China's crude oil business inventories in March with the strategic petroleum reserve were to add about 9 million barrels.

March strategic petroleum reserve note oil is still going on

Crude oil inventories average monthly incremental business from about 3 million barrels (and commercial inventory monthly performance increment generally no more than 7 million barrels), therefore,Energy Saving Light we think of the crude oil imports in March there are still part of the flow to the strategic petroleum reserve. At the same time, because of China's imports of crude prices and international crude oil prices to keep a certain time, march import prices of crude oil is still in the low post (3 in an average price of $116 / barrel).

Domestic demand but it's hard to say smooth exuberant, local oil refining enterprise cut price

We calculated in March of Chinese oil demand an average of 10.1 million barrels for the apparent/day, up 3.3%, down from annulus, and our 2012 quarter of Chinese demand growth is slowing, total demand expectations of steady consistent. At the same time, because of the market in early march to raise product prices has been expected, Padded Hanger on March 20, eventually to increase oil prices to the national development and reform commission, the inventory is added to the high society, thus formed the supply exceeds demand. Recently, we know that part of the local oil refining enterprise has the factory price drop to the level before the national development and reform commission refiners, also from the side proved that.

April may experience to inventory process,Well Socket crude oil manufactured and apparent consumption is expected to be reduced

Because the oil refining loss-making, local refinery has already started to increase the overhaul efforts. At the same time, because of large refinery gradually entered the maintenance period, maintenance than march is increased. Therefore, crude oil manufactured in April may appear annulus comparing down, affected by this April apparent consumption are also expected to reduced. However, because of the coming season farms, the final demand is expected to rise in April, so April may experience refined oil to inventory process.


 

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